Friday, January 18, 2019

The Sequel of the Supermarket Challenge ("I can't choose!")


From the last trip to a supermarket with me, you know that I am a terrible person to go grocery shopping with. I am, in a sense, very rational and usually try to choose a product that would maximize utility (pleasure/well-being). I try to make a choice that maximize nutrition and taste, and minimize the price.

The problem is, there is a subtle trade-off. You have to face so many options and compare different factors. If you are serious about it, it would be a complex mathematical problem! And that would require time and mental energy (unless you can invent some kind of AI to make decisions for you based on your preferences). While you try hard to make a good decision to maximize utility, that process itself decreases your utility. This can be roughly illustrated as below:

  ("The Procedural Utility and Outcome Utility Possibilities Curve")

Procedural utility refers to the pleasure/joy/well-being produced by the shopping experience. Outcome utility refers to the pleasure/joy/well-being produced by the outcome (the good). Note that one unit of procedural utility and one unit of outcome utility may not be the identical.

Point A is where you do not spend time or effort to make a choice. It leads to very high procedural utility but negative outcome utility. (You feel good for grabbing something as soon as you see it and paying for it, but that thing is not something you like or something good for you.*) As you decide to spend a little more time and effort to make a decision, you end up at point B, where procedural utility decreases but outcome utility increases. A balance between the two.

At point C, the outcome utility is the highest. But that leads to negative procedural utility because you had to go through the confusion and/or a lot of calculation. As you spend even more time and effort to make the decision, you become, "these three pasta sauce all look good to me and they all have their own merits. I don't know which one to choose!" Then you either end up choosing an option that is not good due to decision fatigue. This leads to both negative outcome utility and negative procedural utility (point D); or, you would just skip the decision, which would be slightly above point D where outcome utility is zero.

As you spend more time and effort, your utility point moves toward left along the curve.

This hypothesis is used to describe an average decision made by an average person. A decision made based on routine, for example, would not fit this hypothesis. It could obtain high procedural utility without trading outcome utility off.

*This is what Daniel Kahneman calls "system 1" in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow.

It is free to subscribe to this blog. Support me by following me on Facebook or Twitter. Cancel anytime as you wish.

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Suicide: How Does Unemployment Cost Lives?



As I have said before, unemployment is more than just a matter of losing income, it does incur psychological costs. People do not just feel anxious about the loss of income, they feel sad, ashamed, lost, etc. for not serving a purpose, losing self-respect, social connections, etc. If the society and the government forget that work means more than just income and human is an emotional species, we would not be able to tackle the problem. Unemployment incurs both monetary and psychological costs.

Friday, January 04, 2019

The Supermarket Challenge (Choice Overload and Bounded Rationality)



I can be a terrible person to go grocery shopping with, and recently I have come to understand why.

If you ever go grocery shopping with me, you would see me standing in front of the fridge, wondering which milk would be the best, or standing in the vegetable section, wondering which vegetable I should get. I used to think I was just indecisive. Maybe I am, but it is more than that.

When I consider what to buy, factors I take into consideration are nutrition, price, taste, ingredients, etc. I look at the price, pick up the product, flip it to the back, look at how many "good" and "bad" nutrients it has and the ingredients. If I have had it before already, I recall what it tasted like. If not, I imagine how it would taste like and put it back. Then I pick up an alternative from the same brand or another brand, repeat the process. After that, I try to compare all or most of the options.