Dream Big, Think Twice: Decision Making in Life, Business and Politics

(source: pixabay)

Once upon a time, a leader of a group of people initiated a movement to develop their residence. A lot of schemes were included in this movement. One of them was to get many regular households to create steel, because he thought it would significantly contribute to the economic development. He also urged people to kill sparrows, because he thought they were eating the crops. He had passion, and he believed in himself. The people had passion, and they believed in themselves and their leader. What a great dream!

However, the movement resulted in a big failure. Why? It turned out that regular households had no knowledge about making steel. And when they had no iron ore, they would just grab their pots and melt them. The iron became garbage. Those crop-eating sparrows almost went extinct, and that lead to the increase of the super-crop-eating locusts, because no sparrows were eating the locusts anymore. These two issues contributed to a great famine and an economic regression. The movement is called "Great Leap Forward". The place is known as "China". It happened from 1958 to 1962.

"The Great Thought of Mao Zedong Shines With Splendor."
(source: Kurt Groetsch | Flickr)

One of the main problems with our decision making is that we often ignore the reality. And reality can bring challenges in front of us. If you want to become an actor, do you you know whether your acting is actually likable? How many opportunities are actually out there? Perhaps many people have the same dream, making the quantity of supply very high while the quantity of demand is low. You may think you are better than everyone else, but that could be just overconfidence. And if you want to get a bachelor's degree (e.g. theater/performing arts) for that, which may cost a lot of money, you really should think carefully whether it is worth it. Dreaming big without reality check could lead to future suffering.

Of course, Skillful politicians know very well how much we love to dream big without thinking about the reality. That is why they sell us big dreams. That is why they can easily say their plan can improve our lives or solve a big problem. And it is critical to avoid talking about the risks, costs or plausibility because hey, who wants to know all those bad things? We want to believe in good things!

The problem is if the plan turns out to be a terrible plan, then we would have to suffer from it, like those in the great famine in China. Feeling good for having a sweet dream turns out to lead to future large scale suffering.

In business, it is the same too. Sometimes the staff or even the leaders are too optimistic about their products or businesses, and they do not want to think about how hard it can be to sell it, how much competition they are facing or the possibility that the demand is low. In the American TV show Shark Tank*, when some entrepreneurs are asked why they think their business will succeed, in spite of little sale for a period of time, a lot of them would talk about anecdotes (individual stories). "Our customers say they really love our products!" The problem is, they do not represent the whole story! The sale is still low! This is what is known as confirmation bias, a cognitive bias that leads us to search for and focus on the evidence that would favor what we already believe and like to believe, instead of neutrally looking for evidence to make a rational judgement.

So what can we do to check reality? We can ask questions. It usually starts with how. If I want to become actor, how can I become one? Do other people think my acting is good? Is it really that easy to become a successful actor who makes a lot of money? Would I be happy with a low salary and unstable career? How can raising/lowering taxes help the economy and our lives? After developing this product, how can we get people to know about it?

After asking questions, you will get the answers either from yourself, by gathering information, or from who you ask. Either way you should examine the answers critically. Reality checking requires learning and critical thinking. Living in today's world, checking something is just clicks and minutes away, but many of us still do not do it. What a waste of resources.

It is easy to dream big, but it is hard to look at the reality. It is because reality can be harsh and we do not want to believe it. Ignoring reality is so tempting.

I am not saying we should not dream big or be hopeful. I am an optimist myself. But in life, in business, in politics, etc., we have to be realistically optimistic, or else it would just be the seed for suffering. Dream big, think twice.

*In this show, entrepreneurs seek investment from at least one of the five successful investors who are also entrepreneurs themselves,

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Is Healthcare/Living Wage a Right?

(Source: Gage Skidmore | Wikimedia)

When people say "X is a right", what do they actually mean by that? In the U.S., Bernie Sanders has been saying that healthcare is a right, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortex has been saying a living wage is a right. The conservatives just say they aren't. So are they?

There are two types of rights: moral rights and legal rights. A moral right refers to a right that is based on moral reasoning or religious belief. A legal right refers to a right that is guaranteed by the law. "I have the right to know if my husband is having an affair," this is a moral right argument, but not a legal right one. And a legal right is not necessarily a moral right. Slavery was a legal right in many jurisdictions over the world, but most of us today would agree that it was immoral. A right comes from a duty. In the case of public policies, usually the duty is imposed on the government.

When you call something a "human right", then it is a right that is entitled to every human being, not just a a right of a particular group (e.g. citizens of one country). It can also be moral or legal. When we are talking about human rights based on the law, scholars and politicians usually invoke international law (e.g. the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights). On the domestic level, fundamental citizens' rights are usually guaranteed by the constitution or a separate bill of rights.

Healthcare, living wage, a job, higher education, etc., are not legal rights in the U.S, at least on the federal level. Neither the Constitution nor any law guaranteed any of those things. It does not mean that they cannot become legal rights, but they are just not right now.

In some of the countries, citizens can say that the government has the legal duty to ensure they have access to health care, because many countries have ratified the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. Article 11 says the governments to the covenant "recognize the right of everyone to the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health", and the government is obligated to the "prevention, treatment and control of epidemic, endemic, occupational and other diseases". The U.S. is not a party to this treaty.

You can, of course, argue that it is a moral right. Then it requires more discussion with moral reasoning, because it is more abstract and less objective, unlike a legal right which you can just point to a provision of a law.

In my opinion, a politician (especially a lawmaker) saying "we have to MAKE healthcare/living wage a (legal) right" would be much more meaningful than saying they ARE a right. It could be seen as misleading, as it confuses the public to have the perception that the right to healthcare (which can only be argued based on morality now) is no different from the right to vote, for example (which is solidly based on the law).

We should agree that no one should casually drop a simplistic statement like "X is a (human) right" without referring to a law or a sophisticated argument. You cannot arbitrarily impose a duty on someone/the society/the government as you wish.

This is the type of information that is barely mentioned in mainstream debates. I hope this helps set the stage for more reasonable discussion.　

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